Carrots and sticks for a hostage deal by Ramadan

Israel and Hamas both have good reason to want a deal by Ramadan but neither shares the optimism expressed by US President Joe Biden this week.

The start of Ramadan on March 10 offers several incentives for a ceasefire deal that would see the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. But despite President Biden’s optimism this week, both sides say negotiations may well drag on into the holy month.

A carrot for Hamas is the opportunity to leverage Israel's release of Palestinian prisoners to the joy of the holiday to galvanise public support for its battle.

A stick is the looming invasion of Rafah. War cabinet member and former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz has already named the start of Ramadan as the deadline for Rafah if the hostages are not released.

On the Israeli side, the carrot is what may be a singular opportunity to bring the hostages home.

The stick is the fear that Ramadan will exacerbate threats both from external enemies and from the Palestinian population within Israel. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said this week that Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas are aiming to turn the Muslim holy month into “the second stage of October 7, and ignite the ground”.

On Wednesday, Hamas called on Palestinians to march to Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque at the start of Ramadan, raising the stakes over the area already inflamed by restrictions on Muslim access during the holy month.