Gaza strike will ultimately change nothing

Israeli and Palestinian analysts agree the current operation in Gaza will not change the trajectory of the conflict, reports BEN LYNFIELD.

The killing this week of Islamic Jihad commanders responsible for attacks on Israel may look like a security coup for Israel.

But it is questionable whether the dramatic raids, which also killed more than 10 Palestinian civilians, will have any lasting effect.

“One thing is certain, a ceasefire with Islamic Jihad in Gaza won’t last long,” said Yossi Alpher, a veteran strategic analyst who writes a column for American Friends of Peace Now. “Israel has struck a significant strategic blow and achieved deterrence. For how long? Only time will tell.”

We have seen this before. Operation Breaking Dawn, the military campaign waged by Yair Lapid’s government eight months, failed to produce a protracted respite. It is likely that Israel and Gaza will continue in a dynamic of episodic eruptions fuelled by militarism on the Israeli side and Islamic fundamentalism wedded to the idea of destroying Israel on Islamic Jihad’s side.

Ghassan Khatib, former Palestinian Authority minister of labour and a professor at Birzeit University on the West Bank, says Israel’s outlook and Iranian backing for Islamic Jihad pave the way for repeated confrontations. “Assassinations have never succeeded in limiting the ability of the Palestinian side to keep fighting. Leaders are replaceable and as long as the same roots [of conflict] are there, the motivation will remain,” he said.

As Khatib spoke, Islamic Jihad rockets were striking Ashkelon and Sderot in more close calls for Israelis, who have thus far suffered no significant injuries, and the Israeli air force was pummelling what the army said were sites used by Islamic Jihad for rocket launches.