Inside Gaza: IDF orders, death toll, and a deal linking war end to Netanyahu’s trial
What's happening in Gaza? Our TJI Wrap brings you the latest analysis on the death toll in Gaza and compromised IDF ethics.
TJI Wrap
Palestinians children wait at a food distribution point in Gaza City, in the central Gaza Strip, on May 22, 2025 (Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Published: 1 July 2025
Last updated: 1 July 2025
As the war in Gaza enters its 21st month, new revelations are deepening the international crisis surrounding Israel’s military conduct, the staggering human toll, and the political manoeuvring unfolding behind the scenes.
A Haaretz investigation has exposed soldiers’ claims that they were ordered to fire on civilians at aid sites. At the same time, an independent mortality study suggests Gaza’s death toll may be nearing 100,000 — far higher than official figures.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has inserted himself directly into the fray, linking his support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal woes to a broader Gaza ceasefire deal and regional diplomatic ambitions.
IDF soldiers told to fire at Palestinians waiting for food
Israeli soldiers in Gaza have told Haaretz that they were ordered to fire at Palestinians near aid distribution sites over the past month, even when they posed no threat.
Several soldiers described a breakdown of IDF ethical codes, with one calling the area “a killing field”. According to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry, 549 people have been killed and over 4,000 wounded near aid sites since May 27. The exact number of casualties from IDF fire remains unclear.
Haaretz reports that the IDF’s Fact-Finding Assessment Mechanism, overseen by the Military Advocate General, has been instructed to investigate possible war crimes related to these incidents. Soldiers say commanders instructed them to use live fire to disperse crowds instead of non-lethal methods like tear gas.
“Between one and five people were killed every day where I was,” said one soldier. “We use heavy machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars – no warning shots, no deterrents. Once the centre opens, the shooting stops.”
Another soldier said there was no threat from those gathering. “No return fire. No weapons. Just people trying to reach food. We open fire even if someone approaches from a few hundred metres away.” He said the operation in his area was jokingly called “Salted Fish” – the Israeli version of the game “Red Light, Green Light”.
Officers told Haaretz that the army avoids releasing footage from these incidents, fearing a collapse in international legitimacy. One reservist said Gaza had become “a place with its own rules… the loss of human life means nothing”.
A senior officer described the IDF's approach as fundamentally flawed: “It’s not ethically or morally acceptable for people to try to reach food under tank fire, sniper fire, and mortars.”
He explained that the distribution sites have layered security. Inside the centres, American workers operate without IDF presence. Palestinian supervisors – some armed and linked to the Abu Shabab militia – operate closer to the periphery. The IDF’s role is further out, using tanks and mortars to “protect” the area.
He recounted an incident where mortars were fired to keep people away. “One shell landed on a group of people. In other cases, machine guns and grenades were used. One group was hit advancing under fog – it wasn’t intentional, but it happened.”
Netanyahu dismissed the Haaretz report as “malicious falsehoods”. The IDF Spokesperson's Unit stated on Friday, "contrary to the claims in the report, there is no order within the IDF to deliberately shoot at civilians in general, and those who have come to the aid distribution sites specifically".
Gaza Humanitarian Foundation chief Johnnie Moore told the BBC he didn’t deny casualties near aid sites, but said it was false to attribute all of them to GHF proximity, accusing the UN and others of spreading unverified information.
Has Gaza's death toll reached 100,000?
Professor Michael Spagat, an economist at Royal Holloway, University of London, is a world-renowned expert on mortality in violent conflicts. He has published dozens of studies on wars in Iraq, Syria, and Kosovo. Last week, he and a team of researchers released the most comprehensive study to date on mortality in the Gaza Strip.
With the help of Palestinian political scientist Dr Khalil Shikaki, the team surveyed 2,000 households in Gaza, representing nearly 10,000 individuals. They concluded that, as of January 2025, approximately 75,200 people had died violent deaths during the war — most caused by Israeli munitions. At the same time, the Health Ministry in Gaza reported 45,660 deaths since the start of the war. In other words, the official figures undercounted the true toll by about 40 per cent.
According to Professor Spagat, these numbers position the war in Gaza as one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century.
Although the study has not yet undergone peer review, its findings closely mirror those of a separate study published in January by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Using completely different methods, that study also estimated the Health Ministry’s figures to be around 40 per cent lower than the actual number.
Deaths from indirect effects of the war
Spagat’s study is also the first to estimate excess mortality in Gaza — that is, deaths from indirect effects of the war, such as hunger, cold, untreated disease, and the collapse of the healthcare system. According to the survey, excess deaths up to January totalled 8,540. While high by any standard, this is lower than previous projections that suggested tens of thousands might die from famine and disease.
However, in recent months, Gaza's population has shown an increasing inability to protect itself from such conditions. “I would speculate that the ratio of non-violent to violent deaths has gone up since [the January study],” Spagat told Haaretz.
Even without factoring in expected future waves of excess mortality, the combined total of violent and indirect deaths stood at 83,740 by January. As Haaretz notes since then, the Gaza Health Ministry has reported over 10,000 additional deaths — excluding those due to hunger and disease. This suggests that, even if the war hasn’t yet passed the 100,000-death threshold, it is approaching that grim milestone.
According to Professor Spagat, these numbers position the war in Gaza as one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. While the overall number of war-related deaths in Syria, Ukraine, and Sudan may be higher, Gaza likely ranks first in both the ratio of civilians to combatants killed, and in death rate relative to population size.
How is Trump’s call to end Netanyahu’s trial linked to a broader Gaza deal?
On Saturday, Trump dramatically escalated his criticism of Israel over Netanyahu's ongoing criminal corruption trial, implicitly warning that the US$3.8 billion in annual US military assistance to Israel could be at risk unless the charges are dropped.
“It is terrible what they are doing in Israel to Bibi Netanyahu," Trump wrote. "He is a war hero, and a prime minister who did a fabulous job working with the United States to bring great success in getting rid of the dangerous nuclear threat in Iran."
Trump claimed Netanyahu is "in the process of negotiating a deal with Hamas, which will include getting the hostages back," and questioned how Israel could force its leader "to sit in a courtroom all day long, over NOTHING." He then warned: "The United States of America spends billions of dollars a year, far more than on any other nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to stand for this."
“It’s part of a huge historic regional move planned by the two leaders to end the war in Gaza, release all the Israeli hostages, establish a provisional government there, expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and Indonesia, hand Trump the Nobel Peace Prize, and obtain a pardon for Netanyahu.”
What Israeli opposition figures denounced as interference by an American president in Israel’s domestic affairs was, in fact, the opening salvo of this complex scenario — reflecting a new era of global politics, no longer constrained by the traditional rules and red lines that once governed international diplomacy.
On Monday, The Jerusalem Post reported that Trump is working to advance a hostage deal aimed at securing the release of all Israeli hostages and ending the Israel-Hamas war. Approximately 75 per cent of the issues have already been resolved in recent weeks, a source told the Post. “The remaining 25 per cent includes key matters such as the humanitarian situation, the conclusion of the war itself, and the guarantees Israel is demanding to prevent Hamas from rearming.” One option reportedly back on the table is the exile of Hamas leaders.
Trump will host Netanyahu at the White House on Monday 7 July. This will be Netanyahu’s third visit to the White House since Trump returned to office in January. A US official says Gaza and Iran will be the top issues on the agenda.
Read more about the latest on Gaza from Haaretz, BBC and The Jerusalem Post
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