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HomeRead, Watch, ListenIsrael
Israel Iran WarAnalysisIsrael

Middle East on edge as Iran and Israel inch closer to another war

Iran is rebuilding its nuclear and missile capabilities and, with the world preoccupied by the Gaza ceasefire, may be poised to strike Israel again.
TJI Wrap
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An Iranian cleric and a young girl stand next to scale models of Iran-made ballistic missiles and centrifuges

An Iranian cleric and a young girl stand next to scale models of Iran-made ballistic missiles and centrifuges after participating in an anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli rally on November 4, 2025. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Published: 11 November 2025

Last updated: 11 November 2025

Six months after the war between Israel and Iran, and a year since Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, regional officials and analysts are warning that the next round of fighting may already be quietly unfolding.

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran, together with the grinding battle across the Lebanese front, damaged infrastructure, claimed thousands of lives and reshaped regional alliances. Yet neither conflict resolved the central strategic issue: Iran’s ongoing pursuit of nuclear and missile capabilities, and its continued arming of proxy militias across the region.

Today, with diplomacy stalled, nuclear oversight suspended and multiple governments preoccupied with the ongoing war in Gaza, many analysts believe a renewed confrontation — broader, faster and more destructive than before — may be only a matter of time.

Iran rebuilding nuclear capabilities

A recent intelligence assessments suggest that while Israeli and American strikes during the June war caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program, they did not destroy it The New York Times reported this week.

The 2015 nuclear agreement, which limited uranium enrichment, formally expired last month. Sanctions that had been eased under the deal have now been reinstated, and negotiations have collapsed. Officials familiar with nuclear monitoring say Iran retains enough enriched uranium to produce roughly 11 nuclear weapons.

At the same time, Iran appears to be continuing work on a new underground enrichment site known as Pickaxe Mountain — a facility it has refused to open to international inspection. Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told The Financial Times that the majority of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile likely survived the war. He estimates Iran still holds around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent — a short technical step from weapons-grade.

“The result is a dangerous stalemate — with no negotiations, no certainty over Iran’s stockpile, no independent oversight,” The New York Times reported. Many Gulf officials quoted in the article believe that Israel, which regards Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, now sees another strike as almost inevitable.

Israel has repeatedly warned that it is prepared to act again if Iran moves closer to developing a nuclear weapon — a goal Iran publicly denies. Yet many Israeli defence officials believe the June war ended too soon, in part because President Trump halted operations before Israel had destroyed core facilities. “Israel wants to ensure Iran’s nuclear program is contained, and they won’t get it through negotiations,” said H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate at the Centre for American Progress. “Once Iran crosses a certain threshold, Israel will attack again.” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, warned that Iran is preparing for a far more aggressive response should another conflict break out. Iranian officials have told him that missile factories are operating around the clock “If there is another war, they hope to fire 2,000 missiles at once to overwhelm Israeli defences,” Vaez said. “Not 500 over 12 days, as they did in June.”

Ballistic missile expansion continues despite sanctions

The New York Times reporting aligns with a CNN investigation which found Iran is quietly rebuilding its ballistic missile program with assistance from China. Western intelligence agencies say Iran has been importing large quantities of sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient in solid-fuel missile propellant, by exploiting a loophole in UN sanctions that does not specifically prohibit the chemical.

Satellite imagery and shipping records show shipments arriving at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port since late September. Analysts say these materials could allow Iran not only to replenish missiles destroyed in the June war, but to expand the scale and accuracy of its arsenal.

Gulf states cautious but seeking leverage

Across the region, governments are recalibrating. For now, many Arab states remain primarily focused on the war in Gaza and on preventing domestic unrest linked to public anger over Palestinian casualties. Yet a nuclear-capable Iran remains a central strategic concern. Saudi Arabia has moved to hedge its position. In September, it signed a mutual defence pact with Pakistan and has also signalled interest in US security guarantees similar to those extended to Qatar in 2024, after Israel struck Hamas leaders in Doha, an incident that provoked a strong reaction from Trump. However, regional views are not uniform. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House argues that Iran’s current weakness, politically isolated and economically strained, may present a short-term diplomatic opening. “There is a window for compromise while Iran is weaker and more isolated,” she said. “But there is also worry that if another Iran–Israel conflict erupts, Tehran may feel less constrained.”

Foiled plot to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico

In a development underscoring the global dimensions of the conflict, Israel and the US say Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) plotted to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico, Einat Kranz-Neiger, last year.

Mexican security services reportedly disrupted the plot in mid-2024. US officials say the IRGC’s Quds Force began planning the operation in late 2024, allegedly recruiting operatives through Iran’s embassy in Venezuela, whose president Nicolás Maduro maintains close ties with Tehran. “This is just the latest in a long history of Iran’s global targeting of diplomats and dissidents,” said one US official, describing the threat as “contained” but ongoing.

Israel and Hezbollah: a fragile ceasefire under strain

Tensions are also rising again along Israel’s northern border. Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel expects Lebanon’s government to fulfil its commitment under the November 2024 US-mediated ceasefire — specifically, the disarmament of Hezbollah by the end of 2025.

However, Israeli defence officials say Hezbollah has not begun disarming and that Lebanon lacks both the will and capacity to enforce the agreement “A new round with Hezbollah is not a question of if, but when,” a senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor. “If Hezbollah does not disarm voluntarily, Israel will act by force.”

Hezbollah still possesses thousands of rockets and drones capable of striking northern and central Israel. Defence analysts warn that if fighting resumes, Israeli civilian communities evacuated during the previous war may once again come under sustained attack — just months after many residents returned home.

A region holding its breath

The Middle East is now in a precarious holding pattern. Iran is rebuilding. Israel is signalling readiness to strike again. Hezbollah remains heavily armed. Arab states are balancing diplomacy with deterrence. And international oversight has all but collapsed.

The conditions that led to the last wars have not been resolved, they have simply been paused. As one Gulf diplomat told The New York Times: “Everyone is waiting. No one thinks this is over.”

READ MORE

The dangerous stalemate over Iran’s nuclear program (Paywall, The New York Times)

 A year after the cease-fire, Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of war again (Amos Harel, Haaretz)

 'The next war is only a matter of time': Iran prepares waves of missiles toward Israel (Paywall, Ben Caspit, Al-Monitor)

Western intelligence says Iran is rearming despite UN sanctions, with China’s help (CNN)

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