‘The day after’ may be coming in Iran: what would it mean for Israel?

Middle East specialists have long speculated about the fall of Iran's revolutionary Islamic regime. Years of cultural repression against highly educated youth, widespread disillusionment with the revolution, and public repulsion toward a conservative, corrupt elite have all fuelled fires of dissent in the streets.

The violent events of the past two weeks, the worst the regime has ever faced since taking power in 1979, have ignited a renewed discourse about possible scenarios that could develop in a country with 92 million people and 3000 years of history. 

President Trump's public call to the protesters in the streets to “take over your institutions” and his promise that “help is on its way”, together with words from world leaders such as the German chancellor, who stated that the regime is in its "final days” add yet another sense of the imminent change. 

Nevertheless, caution is needed as it is practically impossible to foresee the outcomes of public unrest, and the regime might yet survive this current crisis, as it has done in previous waves of widespread demonstrations in 2009, 2017 and 2022.

An analytic approach to events, their possible outcomes, and implications could lead to numerous scenarios. However, the fact that the widespread demonstrations of the past few weeks lack any kind of nationally coordinated oppositional leadership complicates any assessment of the future developments in case the regime is subdued.

The first scenario to consider is the potential collapse of the regime, which may lead to the return of the exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, and the re-establishment of the Western-affiliated monarchy that was overthrown in the 1979 revolution. Most analysts see this possibility as unrealistic. Even though officials from the Trump administration have met in recent days with Pahlavi, who for years voiced harsh criticism against the regime, his chances of reclaiming his seat seem slim as he lacks any domestic powerbase in Iran and the national memory of the autocratic and highly corrupt monarchy does not generate much support.