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HomeRead, Watch, ListenIsrael
Israel Iran WarAnalysisIsrael

Violence escalates as Iran breakthrough remains elusive

Last week, a breakthrough seemed close. This week Trump found himself scrambling to prevent a return to full-scale war
Shahar Burla
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An Israeli family examines a fallen rocket, in the West Bank city of Jericho (Ilia YEFIMOVICH/AFP via Getty Images)

Published: 11 June 2026

Last updated: 11 June 2026

Nearly four months after the outbreak of war, US President Donald Trump remains without the diplomatic breakthrough he hoped would bring the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran to an end.

Instead, the past week has highlighted just how fragile the situation remains. As violence escalated across Lebanon, Israel, Iran and the Gulf, Trump found himself scrambling to prevent a return to full-scale war, while simultaneously trying to revive negotiations that appeared close to a breakthrough only days earlier.

The dilemma confronting Trump is a familiar one for American presidents. On the one hand, he understands it is politically and strategically difficult for Israel to absorb missile attacks without responding, or for the US to ignore attacks on its own forces. On the other, every retaliatory strike risks dragging Washington deeper into a conflict Trump has repeatedly said he wants to end.

The events of the past week underscore a reality Trump has tried to avoid since returning to office: despite his determination to reduce America's military footprint in the Middle East, the region continues to pull Washington back in.

A week of escalation

Sunday: Lebanon ignites a new crisis

The latest escalation began on Sunday when Israel carried out strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold. According to Lebanese state media, two apartments in separate buildings were hit, killing two people and wounding 11.

The attack came after Tehran warned that any Israeli strike on Beirut would be considered a violation of the US-Iran ceasefire reached in April.

Hours later, Iran followed through on that threat. Ballistic missiles were launched towards Israel in what became the first direct military exchange between the two countries since the ceasefire. Around 30 missiles were reportedly fired, with satellite imagery later confirming damage at Israel's Ramat David airbase.

By responding to Israeli actions in Lebanon with strikes on Israel itself, Iran appeared to be signalling that its red lines now extend beyond its own territory and that it is prepared to defend regional allies more directly.

Israel quickly retaliated, launching strikes against Iranian radar systems, missile facilities and military infrastructure. The Israeli military described the operation as an "extensive strike against strategic defence systems" across Iran.

Monday: Trump intervenes

As the fighting intensified, Trump moved publicly and privately to contain the crisis. According to Axios, the President personally warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against further escalation, telling him that continued attacks could jeopardise US support. "I said, 'Bibi, you better be careful, or you will be on your own very soon,'" Trump reportedly told Axios.

The intervention highlighted growing tensions between Washington and Jerusalem. While Netanyahu sees sustained military pressure as essential to weakening Iran and Hezbollah, Trump remains focused on securing a broader diplomatic settlement.

But events soon overtook diplomacy. Later that day, a US Army Apache helicopter was brought down near the Strait of Hormuz. Following an investigation, American officials concluded that an Iranian drone had struck the aircraft, causing it to crash. Both pilots survived and were rescued.

The incident dramatically raised the stakes. What had been primarily an Israel-Iran confrontation now involved direct attacks on US military assets.

Tuesday and Wednesday: America enters the fight

On Tuesday, the United States launched what US Central Command (CENTCOM) described as self-defence strikes against Iranian military targets, including radar and air-defence facilities near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian media reported that some strikes hit reservoirs in southern Iran, disrupting water supplies for thousands of residents. Iran responded with attacks against US positions in Bahrain, Jordan and elsewhere in the region, marking its first direct military response against American targets during this phase of the conflict.

By Wednesday, Washington had escalated further. CENTCOM announced a second consecutive day of strikes against multiple Iranian targets. Explosions were reported around Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Minab, while Iranian media said a petrochemical facility linked to the South Pars gas field had also been targeted.

For Trump, the challenge is becoming increasingly clear. The military pressure is intended to push Iran towards an agreement. But every new strike risks producing the opposite outcome, drawing the US deeper into a conflict he has spent months trying to end

"We hit them hard yesterday and we'll hit them hard again today," Trump told reporters. At the same time, he insisted that a negotiated settlement remained within reach. "We have a fully negotiated deal. All they have to do is sign a paper."

Ceasefire and diplomacy under severe strain

Despite the fighting, diplomacy has not collapsed. Iranian and American officials continue to communicate indirectly through regional mediators, particularly Qatar and Pakistan. According to multiple reports, negotiations remain active, albeit under considerable strain.

A senior White House official told Politico that military operations and diplomacy should be viewed as separate tracks. "There's a military bucket and then there's a negotiation bucket," the official said. "Two things can happen at the same time."

Yet the latest escalation reflects a deeper problem: the negotiations were already stalling before the helicopter incident. According to reporting by Axios, Trump had become increasingly frustrated by Iran's delay in responding to a revised US proposal submitted at the end of May. The proposal reportedly sought two key commitments from Tehran: agreement to down-blend its enriched uranium within 60 days and a pledge not to impose tolls or restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

In return, Washington was prepared to allow the uranium process to occur inside Iran under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision, a significant concession from previous US positions. Iran requested additional time to consider the proposal, but the delay stretched into nearly two weeks.

As negotiations dragged on, Trump's frustration reportedly grew. Iranian officials continued to seek sanctions relief and access to frozen assets, while critics in Washington accused the administration of allowing Tehran to stall indefinitely.

The outbreak of fighting only complicated matters further. Iranian officials now argue that continued US and Israeli military actions are undermining diplomacy. Washington insists the deal remains available but warns that patience is running out.

The core disagreements remain unchanged. Iran wants sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and recognition of its regional interests, including Lebanon. The US wants guarantees that Tehran cannot develop nuclear weapons and that international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains unrestricted.

Those differences were difficult enough to bridge before the latest fighting. They may be even harder now.

For Trump, the challenge is becoming increasingly clear. The military pressure is intended to push Iran towards an agreement. But every new strike risks producing the opposite outcome, drawing the US deeper into a conflict he has spent months trying to end.

The coming days may determine whether the latest escalation becomes another temporary crisis, or the moment when America's effort to leave the Middle East behind is once again overtaken by events.

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About the author

Shahar Burla

Shahar Burla

Dr Shahar Burla is a Sydney-based researcher, lecturer and Contributing Editor of TJI. Shahar holds a Master’s degree in political science from Hebrew University and a PhD in political science from Bar-Ilan University. He is the author of Political Imagination in the Diaspora: The Construction of a Pro-Israeli Narrative (2013) and co-editor of Australia and Israel: A Diasporic, Cultural and Political Relationship (2015).

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