Stalemate likely in Israel’s election: latest polls

Israel’s latest polls are producing an increasingly uncomfortable picture for voters hoping to replace Benjamin Netanyahu: the change bloc may be competitive with the prime minister’s camp, but it still has no clear path to a majority government without relying on Arab parties.

That arithmetic is beginning to translate into anxiety. A new survey conducted by political consultant Yossi Tatika and published by Zman Israel found 73 per cent of opposition voters were “very worried” about the emerging election result, with another 15 per cent somewhat worried. Among coalition voters, 48 per cent were very worried and 21.5 per cent somewhat worried.

The concern reflects a striking feature of recent polling. Netanyahu’s bloc and the change bloc remain relatively close, but neither approaches the 61 seats required to govern alone. Meanwhile, the Joint List and Ra’am together command around 13 seats, while the new alliance between Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha is hovering around the electoral threshold and could hold another four.

For the change bloc, the problem is political as much as mathematical. Several of its leaders have ruled out forming a coalition with either Ra’am or the Joint List. Unless those positions change, even a clear electoral defeat for Netanyahu may not automatically produce a stable alternative government.

Increasingly, therefore, the most plausible route to removing Netanyahu may not be a conventional majority coalition at all. It could be a temporary minority government, supported or tolerated from outside by Arab parties, with a limited agenda: replace Netanyahu, establish a state commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding October 7, pass a new conscription law and then attempt to broaden the coalition.