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HomeRead, Watch, ListenWorld
AnalysisWorld

China’s careful calculus on the volatile US-Iran nuclear standoff

China is Iran’s number one trading partner. How will it respond if the US and Iran move into military conflict?
Dror Doron
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China Iran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R-4) attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping(L-4) at The Great Hall of the People on September 2, 2025 in Beijing (Parker Song – Pool / Getty Images)

Published: 26 February 2026

Last updated: 26 February 2026

The American threat of a military strike on Iran is looming over the Middle East, as Washington tries to force Tehran to concede to severe limitations on its nuclear capabilities.

During the past weeks, the US has engaged in the largest military build-up in the region in two decades, and the flow of aerial and naval forces continues daily. Iran is conducting military drills as a show of its resolve in the face of the rising pressure.

Watching from the sidelines of this dramatic event stands China, as the showdown between Trump and the Supreme Leader carries significant implications for Beijing’s interests. Reports that China’s most advanced spy ship, the Liaowang-1, has been deployed to the Persian Gulf suggest Beijing is focusing attention on the region.  

The sophisticated radars and signal collection instruments on board the Liaowang-1 will supply China with valuable information on the US's most advanced weapon systems deployed in the area. It could also be used as an early warning and intelligence-gathering vessel to assist Iran in the event of an active conflict. 

This Chinese response should not be seen as a surprise. China is one of the few countries, alongside Russia and till recently, Venezuela, which has stood by Iran's side. For years, China has been Iran’s number one trading partner, as some 80% of Iran’s illegal oil exports are delivered to the Chinese market. China also supplies Iran with military equipment, as well as materials and components to be used by Iran's advanced missile industries.

Some 80% of Iran’s illegal oil exports are delivered to the Chinese market

During the protests, which erupted last month and challenged the Iranian regime's domestic control, leading to the killing of thousands, China reportedly assisted Tehran in casting a nationwide communications blackout, while blaming Washington for interfering in the domestic affairs of another sovereign country and calling on all sides to show restraint.

China will not risk direct military conflict with the US by joining Iran in a military confrontation

In recent weeks, multiple reports regarding Iran’s and China's military cooperation seemed to be part of an intentional Iranian attempt to deter the US from implementing its threats against Iran. Among those were the unusual public appearance of the Chinese military attaché in Tehran along Iran’s Airforce commander; the exposure of China’s intention of selling Iran advanced HQ-9 air defense systems to replace the Russian S –300’s (which were destroyed by Israel during the 12 days-war last June); and the possible delivery of advanced Chinese-made supersonic CM-302 missiles, that could pose a serious threat to American navy vessels.

Nevertheless, it is commonly agreed by foreign affairs analysts that China will not risk direct military conflict with the US by joining Iran in a military confrontation. Intelligence sharing and diplomatic positioning are likely to be as far as its support goes.

From Beijing’s point of view, the rising tensions surrounding Iran present a mixed set of risks and opportunities. It is in Beijing’s interest that Iran prevails, thus denouncing Washington’s pressures and expose Trump’s inability to force the American vision of global order. If this happens, China could keep consuming smuggled Iranian oil, which it buys at sub-market prices, providing Iran with advanced weapon systems. 

If violence erupts, China will be able to collect highly valuable military intelligence on American weapon systems it might encounter in the Indo-Pacific arena and could even use the US-focused political and military attention in the Gulf to promote more aggressive steps around Taiwan, in the south China sea and the Pacific.

China will risk disruption to its energy supply, but it will probably be time-limited, as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states with whom it holds close ties will be more than happy to increase their exports.

China has been cautious in its responses to recent provocations. It did not respond when American Navy forces intercepted of an oil tanker carrying an illegal shipment to China in the Indian Ocean, nor when the US took over a commercial vessel carrying a Chinese shipment of dual-use military equipment to Iran, allowing the ship to continue only after confiscating the sensitive cargo container.

China played only a limited role in a joint military drill with the Iranian and Russian navies in the Gulf of Oman last week, and a second expected drill did not go ahead.

With President Trump's planned visit to China next month, Beijing has major geo-strategic interests to promote. Protecting Iran from American wrath, let alone risking its own military friction with the US, are not part of the plan.

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Comments1

  • Avatar of Michael

    Michael26 February at 04:39 am

    Yossi Cohen deserves a lot of credit for seeing this 5 years ahead of time. He pointed it out on retirement. He wanted to say that the US should not be trying to confront both Iran and China at the same time because the different conflicts will have a way of merging together making it a lot harder to deal with Iran. Unfortunately he was ignored by lesser strategists who thought it would be talking walking and chewing gum at the same time.

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2021-06-08/ty-article/ex-mossad-chief-says-he-doesnt-understand-u-s-antagonism-toward-china/0000017f-e7a6-d97e-a37f-f7e71b490000

About the author

Dror Doron

Dror Doron

Dror Doron is a senior political analyst specialising in the Middle East, and is a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon.

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