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As the ceasefire holds, focus shifts to the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan — who will govern, whether Hamas will disarm, and how Israel and Hamas will handle the grim task of returning the hostages’ bodies.
President Donald Trump signs the Gaza ceasefire agreement at a world leaders’ summit on October 13, 2025 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. (Suzanne Plunkett – Pool / Getty Images)
Published: 16 October 2025
Last updated: 16 October 2025
The first phase of Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan came to fruition on Monday, delivering a ceasefire, the release of 20 surviving Israeli hostages and several hundred Palestinian prisoners, and a pause in Israel’s military campaign. But the most difficult part lies ahead. The second phase — dismantling Hamas and deciding who will govern Gaza — remains deeply uncertain and politically explosive.
Trump, who travelled to Israel and Egypt to declare an end to the war at a summit of world leaders, left behind a sense of ambiguity rather than closure. His deal may have stopped the fighting, but it has not yet secured peace. Here’s what we know so far about what comes next:
What happens on the ground
For the first time in months, Israeli drones, airstrikes, and artillery fire have halted, and Hamas’s military wing has ceased targeting Israeli forces inside the enclave — meaning that, in practice, the fighting in Gaza has stopped.
So far, Israel has pulled back from Gaza’s major cities to a so-called “yellow line”, meaning it now occupies about 53% of the territory. In theory, further withdrawals will occur in two additional stages: first, once an international stabilisation force is deployed; and second, when Israel establishes a lasting “security buffer zone”.
Meanwhile, a Hamas-run police force on Tuesday announced a series of executions and security raids targeting alleged Israeli collaborators and others it considers outlaws — a show of power following the ceasefire and hostage-release deal. The violent crackdown on rivals and suspected collaborators risks undermining stability in the war-torn territory and has drawn criticism from elements of the Palestinian Authority.
That same day, the IDF reported that its troops opened fire on several suspects who approached Israeli positions beyond the “yellow line” in northern Gaza, describing the incident as a violation of the ceasefire. According to the military, soldiers issued multiple warnings before firing “to remove the threat”, adding that no breaches of Israeli positions occurred. Palestinian sources later claimed that five people were killed in Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighbourhood during the confrontation, which unfolded amid the ongoing ceasefire.
Oustanding issue: returning hostage bodies
On Wednesday night, the IDF received two more caskets containing the apparent bodies of deceased hostages from the Red Cross. The caskets had been collected from Hamas in Gaza City.
So far, Hamas has handed over ten bodies — nine identified as hostages and one as Gazan. If the two new bodies are confirmed to be hostages, the group would still be holding the remains of 19 dead hostages in Gaza. Hamas now says it has no additional remains to return and that recovering more will require “efforts and special equipment.”
US President Donald Trump said Hamas is searching for the bodies of the remaining hostages in Gaza. “It’s a gruesome process… They’re digging and they’re finding a lot of bodies. Then they have to separate the bodies,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “Some of those bodies have been there a long time, and some of them are under rubble. They have to remove rubble… some are in tunnels that are way down under the earth.”
Israel told the Trump administration on Wednesday that Hamas is not doing enough to recover the bodies of dead Israeli hostages, and that the Gaza deal cannot move to the next phase until this changes, according to two Israeli officials and one US official cited by Axios.
Sources involved in the talks between Israel and Hamas told Haaretz that the difficulties in returning the bodies of abducted hostages are not currently affecting efforts to advance phase two of the Trump plan — which includes the withdrawal of IDF forces and the establishment of an alternative government in Gaza. According to one source, Israel remains committed to the agreement, recognising that Hamas would struggle to return all bodies within days and that some may not be in its possession. However, Israel still expected Hamas to return more remains.
Domestically, pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to link humanitarian aid to the recovery of the hostages’ bodies. Yael Adar, the mother of slain hostage Tamir Adar, delivered a scathing critique of the government’s handling of the issue on Monday night, accusing Israeli leaders of having “betrayed” families whose loved ones were killed in captivity and not returned.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Tuesday that the process of recovering and transferring remains would take considerable time, describing it as a “massive challenge” given the destruction across Gaza. “That’s an even bigger challenge than having the people alive being released,” said ICRC spokesperson Christian Cardon. “It could take days or weeks — and there is a real possibility some may never be found. We are telling both parties that this should be their top priority.”
Will Hamas lay down its arms?
Disarmament is a central tenet of Trump’s Gaza plan — yet on Saturday, a senior Hamas official told AFP that disarmament was “out of the question”, adding: “The demand that we hand over our weapons is not up for negotiation.” Even as hostages were being released, images circulated showing armed fighters in parts of Gaza — an apparent attempt by Hamas to reassert its authority. Since the ceasefire took effect, armed members of the group have redeployed in parts of the Strip, clashing with rival factions and local clans.
At the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, Donald Trump told world leaders that his plan requires the “demilitarisation” of Gaza and the creation of a new civilian police force before reconstruction can begin. Under the agreement, Hamas had also pledged to dismantle all “military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapons-production facilities.”
On Tuesday, Trump said Hamas had assured his aides it would disarm, warning that the group could be dealt with “violently” if it refused. He also urged Hamas to proceed with the return of all remaining hostages’ bodies. “I spoke to Hamas, and I said, ‘You’re going to disarm, right?’ ‘Yes, sir. We’re going to disarm.’ — That’s what they told me. They will disarm, or we will disarm them,” Trump told reporters at the White House. He later clarified that this message had been relayed through his “people” — apparently referring to US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — rather than through direct contact with Hamas officials.
Will the fighting resume?
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would consider allowing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resume military operations in Gaza if Hamas fails to honour its obligations under the ceasefire deal. Speaking to CNN, Trump said Israeli forces could return to the streets “as soon as I say the word.”
Despite Trump’s repeated and emphatic declarations that the war is over, analysts warn that any breach by either side could quickly reignite hostilities. “If there’s a terrorist attack against one of our posts right now, God forbid, and we have casualties — after a minute, it’s over,” said Zohar Palti, a former senior Mossad and Ministry of Defence official, in remarks to The New York Times.
Domestic politics could also play a decisive role. Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli envoy and distinguished fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, cautioned that public sentiment could drive a renewed escalation. “If it turns out in four or five weeks that the general mood in the country is that this war was an awful round, but only another round, and Hamas is back, I can see Netanyahu trying to correct that,” Novik said. “All you need is a Hamas provocation and a disproportionate Israeli reaction, and you can have a spiral.” He added that it was now up to Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt — the three Muslim-majority states that helped broker the ceasefire — “to pressure Hamas not to provoke.”
How will the temporary ‘International Stabilisation Force’ operate?
According to the White House plan, the US will “work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary international stabilisation force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza.” The plan describes the ISF as “the long-term internal security solution.” In theory, it is designed to give Israel the assurance that it can withdraw its forces without enabling Hamas to rebuild.
While Arab and Muslim states are expected to make up the majority of the force, many crucial details remain unresolved — including whether it will operate under a UN mandate, what conditions contributing nations may set, and the precise scope of its authority. “No one expects that the force would fight Hamas,” a Western diplomat told the Financial Times. They added that the mere presence of the force could make it harder for either side to resume the conflict, even if it did “absolutely nothing.”
Archie Bland and Peter Beaumontt in The Guardian have voiced scepticism about whether the ISF could effectively deter renewed violence and pointed to a recent grenade attack by an Israeli drone near UN peacekeepers in Lebanon as a cautionary example “You would likely have a model similarly mandated to patrol and report on ceasefire violations,” he said. “But in southern Lebanon, they have been pretty toothless. You would see UN forces at their bases, then drive to a nearby village controlled by Hezbollah and be asked for your paperwork by a guy on a motorbike.”
What’s happening next with the talks?
Trump told journalists on Monday that negotiations for the next phase of his plan had already begun, but he did not disclose who is mediating or what is being discussed. The phases of his plan are “all a little mixed in with each other,” he added. A regional diplomat and an Israeli source told CNN on Tuesday that phase-two talks are already underway in Sharm el-Sheikh between technical teams.
Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said last week that the negotiations for the second phase would focus on Gaza’s governance, with a Palestinian technocratic administrative body expected to run the enclave.
According to Trump’s plan, this Palestinian body would operate under the oversight of an international entity called the “Board of Peace,” chaired by the US president “with other members and heads of state to be announced.” The proposed list reportedly includes former British prime minister Tony Blair — a controversial figure in the Middle East because of his role in the 2003 Iraq War.
Hamas has welcomed Arab and Islamic participation but has signalled that it would reject any international body exercising authority over Gaza. “Negotiations for a second phase will be easy if it’s left to the Palestinians, but it will be difficult if the Israelis decide to interfere in our Palestinian matters,” Hamdan said.
What about reconstruction?
The White House plan pledges to “rebuild and energise” Gaza, drawing on “many thoughtful investment proposals and exciting development ideas.”
But, a rapid “Marshall Plan” style investment in Gaza appears unlikely. Assessing the likely pattern of a rebuild, Peter Beaumont wrote in The Guardian, "Palestinians are incredibly resourceful. Given any kind of peace, they will quickly be clearing roads and trying to rebuild. But the scale of the damage is, of course, immense. And my sense is that Israel will continually ask what guarantees it has that nothing will be diverted to military use — and will impose onerous conditions on the process.”
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