‘Wounded animal’ regime will become more aggressive in fight for survival

The fast-moving events in the Middle East have once again caught the international community by surprise. The optimistic statements of the Iranian officials after the Thursday negotiation sessions in Geneva with the US turned into shock after the targeted assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and a group of high-ranking military officials on Saturday morning in the opening strike of a joint American-Israeli campaign.

The region has now been thrown into the uncertainty of a military conflict, and nobody knows what the immediate future holds. By now, Iran has suffered extensive damage to its political and security leadership and to its military capabilities. Nevertheless, Iran is far from surrendering; it has already replaced the dead leadership figures and used its ballistic missiles to hit Israel as well as American forces stationed in the Arab Gulf countries.

It has also materialised its threat to block the Hormuz straits, a critical water passageway for the export of energy products from the region to the world, sending shockwaves to the global oil market.

Before assessing how events  might further develop, it is important to understand how we arrived at the current point. The critical decision that led the US administration to act after weeks of dual use of diplomacy and military buildup was the Iranian position expressed during the talks in Geneva. 

Iran, known for its skillful negotiation tactics and the ability to “buy time” and prolong discussions, met with a very different negotiating partner across the table. Trump’s envoys' aggressive approach blew Iran’s cover and exposed its real, malicious intent regarding its nuclear capabilities.