US interests in Iran may not match Israel’s

Decision makers in Israel see the current point in time as a strategic opportunity to dismantle the threat posed by the Islamic regime in Tehran. The regime’s crumbling domestic legitimacy, the collapse of the local currency, and the massive blows to its regional proxies put Tehran in its most vulnerable position in decades. 

This sentiment in Israel is further strengthened by the US military buildup, aimed at pressuring Iran to concede to constraints it rejected in the past. These, according to Israel, should include not only the complete abolition of Iran’s nuclear program, but also harsh restrictions on its ballistic missile capabilities and the freezing of Tehran's support to its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza and Iraq.

This set of ambitious demands is seen in Tehran as an Israeli attempt to achieve a complete Iranian surrender or face the risk of a military move that might cause the fall of the regime. Ahead of the second round of talks with the US, Iranian officials have already categorically rejected the idea of any negotiations on its ballistic missiles or its proxy network.

Iran also firmly adheres to its traditional position regarding claiming it has the right to proceed with the development of its nuclear program, officially described as a civilian program.

The gap between Israel’s demands and the Iranian position leaves very little leeway for compromise and seems to lead the way to an inevitable military conflict. The question that remains to be seen is what President Trump’s intentions are.

The surprise trip Prime Minister Netanyahu took to Washington last week indicates that Israel fears the US demands from Iran are far less extensive.  Washington is likely to try to avoid militarily action by accepting compromises on some of Israel’s demands.