Hamas consolidates control in Gaza while Mid-East is distracted by Iran war

This post, from former Israeli politician Major-General Yair Golan, captures a shows of strength by Hamas in Gaza this week.

These incidents have contributed to what observers describe as a growing climate of fear. According to Dr Asaf David, speaking to Haaretz, Gazans are increasingly cautious in their speech, often avoiding direct criticism and instead using indirect references.

At the same time, the picture is not entirely one-dimensional. Some residents reportedly see the return of Hamas policing as restoring a degree of order amid near-total institutional collapse. In a society where clan dynamics and local disputes can escalate quickly, the presence of an authority, even an unpopular one, can provide a measure of stability.

This dual reality captures Hamas’s current position: widely blamed for Gaza’s devastation, yet still functioning as its de facto governing authority.

Alongside Hamas’s efforts to consolidate control, a quieter but significant development is unfolding: the growing activity of Palestinian militias reportedly backed by Israel. These groups, including formations operating in Rafah and east of Khan Younis, have increased their operations in recent months. Their activities include raids, targeted killings, and attempts to infiltrate Hamas-controlled areas.

Though relatively small in number, these militias appear to have gained improved logistical support and operational capacity. Some have been deployed in Israeli-controlled zones, including at border crossings, while others have launched incursions deeper into Gaza.

Clashes between these groups and Hamas fighters have been reported in multiple regions, including Jabaliya and Gaza City. Hamas has responded with counter-operations, contributing to a rise in internal violence despite the broader ceasefire framework.

Perhaps the most striking development is diplomatic rather than military. Even as the US participates in strikes against Iran, it is also engaged in indirect discussions with Hamas over Gaza’s future. Reports, including from Haaretz, indicate ongoing talks in Cairo involving Egypt and other mediators. These discussions focus on ceasefire implementation, governance arrangements, and the possibility of Hamas disarmament.

So far, there has been little concrete progress. But the very existence of such talks highlights the pragmatic dimension of Hamas’s current strategy.

For Hamas, the priorities are clear: preserving its position in Gaza, avoiding renewed large-scale war, and securing a role in any “day after” framework. For the US and regional actors, engagement, even indirect, reflects a recognition that Hamas remains a central player on the ground.

These talks have reportedly caused frustration in Tehran. Iran, which has provided Hamas with significant financial and military support over decades, now finds its ally engaging with Washington at a moment of direct confrontation.

Hamas’s relationship with Iran has always been strategic rather than purely ideological. As a Sunni movement backed by a Shiite power, the partnership has been shaped by shared opposition to Israel rather than deep alignment.

Since the beginning of the war, Hamas has publicly supported Iran’s right to respond to Israeli and US strikes, while also issuing an unusual call urging Tehran to avoid targeting neighbouring Gulf states. The message reflects Hamas’s delicate position: many of its senior leaders are based in Qatar, now itself exposed to potential Iranian retaliation.

There are also indications of disrupted communication channels between Hamas and Iranian officials, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. According to regional reporting, contacts that were previously maintained even during past conflicts have gone silent.

Analysts cited by Al-Monitor suggest that Hamas sees direct involvement in the Iran war as both risky and impractical. Gaza remains devastated after nearly two years of war, and any escalation could trigger overwhelming Israeli retaliation.

“Hamas’s current priorities are to implement the ceasefire, prevent further war on Gaza, and oversee reconstruction,” political analyst Ibrahim al-Madhoun told Al-Monitor.

Historical tensions also linger. Hamas distanced itself from Iran during the Syrian civil war, later repairing ties. More recently, questions have been raised about the level of Iranian support during the October 2023 attacks and the subsequent war.

In the current conflict, Hamas has refrained from launching rockets at Israel, a notable departure from past patterns, even as other members of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, including Hezbollah, have escalated their involvement.

Hamas is operating under a complex mix of pressures,  but also, increasingly, opportunities.

Internally, it is tightening its grip over a shattered Gaza, reasserting authority, suppressing dissent, and restoring elements of day-to-day governance. Militarily, it continues to face challenges from Israeli operations and emerging rival militias. Diplomatically, it is engaging with actors it has long opposed, including the US.

Yet the regional moment is also working in its favour. With Israel’s attention and military resources heavily focused on the confrontation with Iran, Hamas appears to be regaining a degree of confidence on the ground. The relative reduction in sustained Israeli pressure, even if temporary, has created space for the group to reorganise, project control, and test its position.

At the same time, its relationship with Iran is being recalibrated. The broader “Axis of Resistance” is under strain following a series of setbacks, from leadership assassinations to shifting dynamics in Syria and Lebanon, and the current war is exposing new tensions within that alliance.

Hamas’s decision to stay out of direct confrontation with Israel, for now, reflects a calculated balance. Gaza remains too fragile to absorb another full-scale war, and escalation could jeopardise Hamas’s hold on power. But restraint does not necessarily signal weakness. Rather, it suggests a strategic pause, consolidating internally while watching how the regional picture evolves.

That calculation may not hold indefinitely. The outcome of the Iran war will shape Hamas’s strategic environment for years to come. A weakened Iran could leave Hamas more isolated; a resilient or resurgent Tehran could restore its strategic backing.

For now, Hamas is not simply reacting to events. It is using the moment, cautiously but deliberately, to strengthen its position, aware that the window created by Israel’s focus elsewhere may be limited.

READ MORE 

Hamas forcefully reasserts rule in Gaza under cover of Israel-Iran war (Haaretz) 

Hamas sits out Iran war as Gaza, Gulf interests take priority (Paywall, Al-Monitor) 

Hamas urges Iran to stop attacking Gulf states as Qatar pressures terror group to distance from Tehran (Ynetnws) 

Israeli-backed Palestinian militias step up operations against Hamas in Gaza (The Guardian)