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HomeRead, Watch, ListenIsrael
Israel Hamas WarFeatureIsrael

One year after the ceasefire, Gaza remains in ruins with no solution in sight

Shahar Burla
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Gaza after street map

Gaza in July 2025 (Omar Mukhta/ Google Maps)

Published: 1 October 2026

Last updated: 1 October 2026

As the third anniversary of October 7 approaches, followed days later by the one-year anniversary of the ceasefire, Gaza remains devastated. A new recovery proposal offers little reassurance that rebuilding will begin soon, or that the territory can avoid another escalation.

Updated Google Maps satellite imagery from last week (above) makes the destruction visible to anyone with a phone. Across Rafah, residential neighbourhoods have been reduced to rubble. Roads cut through areas once crowded with homes, shops and everyday life. In Tel al-Sultan, the surviving buildings stand isolated amid flattened streets.

Along Gaza City’s coastline, tents surround the remaining structures near the port. The images document a landscape transformed by Israel’s military campaign following the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.

They also expose the distance between diplomatic declarations and Palestinian lives. Nearly three years after the attack, and almost a year after Donald Trump’s ceasefire took effect, Gaza’s population remains trapped between destroyed communities, continuing violence and a political process offering no clear way forward.

The satellite images are snapshots, rather than a live record. But their significance is unmistakable: destruction on this scale cannot be addressed by announcing another plan.

A recovery blueprint without a starting date

Trump’s Board of Peace unveiled its latest proposal on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York: a six-month recovery programme costing US$2.45 billion.

The blueprint covers 66 programmes, including temporary housing, electricity generation, water infrastructure and waste removal. It offers a framework for restoring services that Gaza’s residents desperately need. Yet there is still no firm date for reconstruction to begin. 

The ceasefire, which took effect on October 10 last year, was supposed to open the way to a wider settlement. That process envisaged further Israeli withdrawals, Hamas’s disarmament, an international stabilisation force and Palestinian technocrats taking responsibility for civilian administration.

Almost a year later, the essential pieces remain missing. Israel controls about 60 per cent of Gaza. Hamas retains its weapons. Neither the proposed international force nor the new civilian administration has entered the territory.

The dispute over sequencing remains central. Hamas has linked disarmament to an end to Israeli attacks and a phased withdrawal. Israel insists that Hamas must disarm before its forces leave.

Israel’s demand reflects a fundamental security concern after the October 7 massacre, but without an agreed process for meeting that demand, the transition remains blocked.

American officials highlight the return of the hostages and the reduction in fighting as substantial achievements. Those gains matter. Yet they have not produced a functioning postwar order.

For Gaza’s civilians, the ceasefire has brought neither reliable safety nor a credible timetable for rebuilding their lives.

Promised billions cannot overcome a political impasse

Even if implemented in full, the recovery package would meet only a fraction of Gaza’s needs.

A joint assessment by the World Bank, United Nations and European Union puts recovery and reconstruction costs at US$71.4 billion over a decade. It estimates that US$26.3 billion is needed in the first 18 months alone to restore essential services, rebuild critical infrastructure and support economic recovery.

The assessment records more than 371,000 damaged or destroyed housing units, widespread devastation of schools and more than half of hospitals out of service. About 1.9 million people have been displaced, often repeatedly. 

These figures describe the collapse of the systems that sustain a society. Rebuilding homes will achieve little without clean water, sanitation, healthcare, education and employment.

The financial gap is compounded by the difference between pledges and payments. According to figures presented with the recovery proposal, about US$18 billion has been promised, but only US$280 million delivered.

Donors also need confidence that projects can operate safely, materials can enter Gaza and a legitimate administration can oversee expenditure. None of those conditions can be settled by fundraising alone.

Clearing rubble is itself a dangerous undertaking. Unexploded weapons must be located and removed, damaged buildings assessed and underground infrastructure addressed. Large-scale reconstruction requires access, equipment and coordination across territory divided by military control.

Haaretz analyst Zvi Bar’el has described the circular dependency: a Palestinian police force is needed for the international stabilisation force to operate, while security arrangements are needed before reconstruction can proceed.

Israel’s role is therefore pivotal. Even where Hamas retains control, Israeli decisions about crossings, materials, movement and international personnel shape what recovery is possible.

Israel also needs a credible civilian alternative to Hamas. Prolonged deprivation makes that alternative harder to establish, while rebuilding without effective security arrangements could allow Hamas to recover its capabilities.

Resolving that dilemma requires an enforceable political agreement. Leaving it unresolved entrenches the conditions that make another war possible.

Israeli displacement politics threatens an already fragile ceasefire

The stalemate is made more dangerous by growing Israeli support for encouraging Palestinians to leave Gaza.

An unnamed Board of Peace official told The Times of Israel that increasingly extremist views in Israel were complicating its work. The official criticised proposals for mass emigration as both morally unacceptable and impractical, pointing to other countries’ unwillingness to accept large numbers of Palestinians without confidence they could return. 

The question of consent is unavoidable. When homes have been destroyed and families lack security, services and livelihoods, describing departure as voluntary obscures the pressures shaping that choice.

The attraction of emigration proposals extends beyond Israel’s far-right parties. Their political reach risks weakening support for the less dramatic but essential work of establishing governance and rebuilding Palestinian communities.

Defence Minister Israel Katz has linked the prospect of eliminating Hamas to implementing an emigration plan. Such statements deepen uncertainty about whether Israel’s preferred outcome is Gaza’s recovery or its depopulation.

They also conflict with the direction of Trump’s peace framework, which envisages Palestinians remaining in Gaza and rebuilding it.

A renewed Israeli offensive would put further strain on relations with Washington and regional partners. Any attempt at mass displacement would face strong opposition, particularly from Egypt.

Meanwhile, continuing attacks, unresolved disarmament and the absence of an effective civilian authority leave the ceasefire vulnerable. Each delay creates more opportunities for violence to overturn what limited progress has been achieved.

Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe is also a security crisis. A population living amid rubble, with little prospect of recovery, cannot provide a stable foundation for coexistence.

Hamas must relinquish the armed power that helped bring catastrophe to Palestinians and Israelis. Israel must enable a viable civilian future rather than make recovery dependent on conditions without an agreed route to fulfilment. International sponsors must turn promises into funding and enforceable arrangements.

Three years after October 7, the Google Maps images show what military destruction has left behind. Almost a year after the ceasefire, the stalled peace process shows how little has replaced it.

Without a credible path towards reconstruction and political settlement, Gaza’s despair will deepen, and the danger of another devastating escalation will grow.

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About the author

Shahar Burla

Shahar Burla

Dr Shahar Burla is a Sydney-based researcher, lecturer and Contributing Editor of TJI. Shahar holds a Master’s degree in political science from Hebrew University and a PhD in political science from Bar-Ilan University. He is the author of Political Imagination in the Diaspora: The Construction of a Pro-Israeli Narrative (2013) and co-editor of Australia and Israel: A Diasporic, Cultural and Political Relationship (2015).

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