Hezbollah disarmament has failed: what happens now?

Dramatic changes occurred in Lebanon this year. A new Western-aligned president was elected, and a new government was sworn in. The notion of disarming Hezbollah, Iran’s crown jewel and most feared proxy terror organization, is openly debated as the government is officially committed to achieving a monopoly over the use of arms on Lebanon’s soil.

Lebanese politicians raised the possibility of peace with Israel publicly, and for the first time in decades, the government authorized a civilian official, and not a military man, to meet with an Israeli counterpart as part of the ceasefire oversight mechanism. The unprecedented interview of Israel’s ambassador in Washington by a Lebanese media outlet and the peaceful message ambassador Leiter sent to the Lebanese people were unthinkable just a year ago.

Nevertheless, the possibility of a peace treaty with Lebanon is still far away. As Hezbollah is clinging to its arms and Tehran’s destructive shadow still looms over Beirut, Lebanon is unable to walk in the footsteps of the other Arab countries neighboring Israel. 

The harsh reality is that as weak as Hezbollah is, the organization's total rejection of the notion of peace with Israel and the fragility of the Lebanese domestic arena, lead to a stalemate that prevents any possibility of moving forward.

Without a strong central government, Lebanon’s ability to engage in any meaningful negotiations with Israel, the way Egypt and Jordan did in the past, and Syria does today, is unrealistic.