Netanyahu pre-election juggling act

In mid-May, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition submitted legislation to dissolve the Knesset.

In accordance with Israeli law, elections must be held within three months of the passage of that legislation. In accordance with Israeli political reality, however, the most reasonable assessment is that while elections are indeed, the most plausible possibility, it is not certain that the Knesset will in fact be dissolved or that Israelis will be going to the polls any time soon.

Elected in 2022, this government and the Knesset would have come to its lawful end by, at the latest, October 27, 2026.  Israel does, however, allow for the Knesset to be dissolved earlier, through passage of legislation by a simple majority. And since the coalition itself submitted the legislation, it is, indeed, likely to obtain the majority.

The issue of military conscription for Haredi men was the immediate reason for the crisis that led the government to present this legislation. As the government neared the end of its four-year term, the ultra-Orthodox parties concluded that Netanyahu could not deliver on his promise to pass legislation – guaranteeing broad exemptions from military service for Haredi yeshiva students and intimated they were unlikely to continue to support his government. 

Netanyahu knows that he cannot fully give in to the ultra-Orthodox demands.  His base is made up of nationalist and right-wing voters who, since October 7, 2023, have served repeated reserve-duty tours, paying high prices in terms of their physical, mental, economic, and social health.  Their resentment against the exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox is intensifying and many have come to view the broad draft exemptions for an estimated 80,000 eligible, army-age young men from service as politically, morally and religiously unacceptable.  At the same time, Netanyahu’s coalition depends heavily on the ultra-Orthodox parties, who largely support his political agendas, so long as they continue to receive stipends for their schools and yeshivot, and as long as they believe that he will pass the non-conscription legislation.