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HomeRead, Watch, ListenIsrael
War in the northAnalysisIsrael

Historic Israel-Lebanon agreement faces Iran’s weapons of disruption

Iran and its proxy have a variety of weapons they could use to disrupt the Lebanese government's commitment to disarm Hezbollah
Dror Doron
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Israel lebanon agreement

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C, back) looks on as (L/R, front row) Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter, State Department Chief of Staff Daniel Holler, and Lebanese Ambassador to the US Nada Hamadeh sign a framework agreement at the US Department of State in Washington, DC, on June 26, 2026 (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Published: 1 July 2026

Last updated: 1 July 2026

Israel and Lebanon’s representatives signed an agreement last week that marks the most significant diplomatic interaction between the two countries in decades. The agreement, which was sponsored by the Trump administration, calls for concluding the ongoing state of war between the two countries and formally affirms each other’s right to live in peace and security as neighbouring sovereign states.

The text also states the Lebanese government's commitment to disarm all non-state groups – a phrase pointing mainly at Hezbollah – and Beirut’s goal to achieve a full monopoly over the use of weapons on its soil. Israel, on its part, declared that it has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon, and upon the verified disarmament of local militias, Israel will withdraw all of its forces from Lebanon.

This diplomatic achievement is far from being an isolated event in the geostrategic landscape of the region, nor is it the first of its kind historically. Back in 1983, a pro-Western Lebanese government signed an agreement known as the “17th May Agreement,” which included much of the same content but was never implemented. A few months after the signing of that agreement, the government in Beirut collapsed due to foreign intervention by the Syrian regime and the civil war, which was raging in full force.

A challenge to Hezbollah

Today, it is Hezbollah, the Iranian regime’s most important regional proxy, which is leading the overwhelming rejection of the recently signed agreement. Hezbollah's officials point to it as a “surrender to American and Israeli dictates” and claim it is aimed at disarming Hezbollah through political pressure after Israel had failed to achieve this goal through military means.

Hours after the announcement of the agreement, Hezbollah's followers took to the streets of Beirut in vocal protests against the government’s “betrayal.” Nabih Berri, the long-serving speaker of parliament and Hezbollah’s closest political ally, stated that the agreement is unacceptable and will not be implemented.

This total rejection is not surprising, as both the content and the timing of the American-sponsored Israeli-Lebanese agreement are contradictory to the interests of Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons.

The American-Iranian Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which was signed just a few weeks prior and ended the war between the two, included specific references to Lebanon demanding the de facto cessation of Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah.

That MOU was seen by Hezbollah’s leadership as a major win, and after its signing, Hezbollah officials openly called on the Lebanese government to halt all diplomatic interactions with Israel, claiming they were no longer needed as Iran could now coerce the US to force an unconditional Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's secretary general, openly called on Lebanon’s leaders to exploit Iran’s achievement and pointed out that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a powerful weapon in the hands of Tehran.

The newly signed Israeli-Lebanese agreement sponsored by the Trump administration undermines Iran's attempt to secure Hezbollah's interests and protect it from the ongoing Israeli military operation in Lebanon.

From Hezbollah's perspective, the fact that the Lebanese government ignored its calls to stop the negotiations with Israel, is yet another reminder of its weakening political influence in the domestic arena. In the weeks leading to the signing of the agreement in Washington, Hezbollah had already launched a campaign delegitimising the government’s authority to negotiate any deal with Israel and issued hints of threats to the cohesion of the Lebanese armed forces in case they were instructed to disarm the organisation.

What could Iran do?

Now, facing a new reality in which a diplomatic agreement signed by Beirut creates a direct linkage between disarming its military capabilities and the future of Israeli military presence on Lebanon’s soil, Hezbollah is required to reshape this problematic narrative, with the support of its puppet master Iran.

As the notion of military resistance is at the core of Hezbollah’s identity, giving up its weapons is a highly unlikely scenario. The only way open to the organisation and its masters in Tehran is to prevent the implementation of the agreement by all available means.

Iran could use its disrupting capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool on Washington, maintaining the linkage it created between the ceasefire in the Gulf and the situation in Lebanon.

It might try to topple the government in Beirut through a political move with its remaining political allies or igniting a popular uprising to force the government into submission.

It may well resort to direct political terrorism, as it has done in the past. Reports in Israeli and Lebanese media suggest that the life of the Lebanese president is under threat as a result of the signing of this agreement.

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About the author

Dror Doron

Dror Doron

Dror Doron is a senior political analyst specialising in the Middle East, and is a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon.

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